ASIA
Central Asia and the Caucasus
The US military reprisals in Afghanistan following the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 have catapulted Asia onto the international stage. States regarded by many in the West to be ex-Soviet backwaters became crucial to the US-led 'War on Terror'.
Afghanistan's ruling Taliban fell from power in November 2001 after being targeted by the US for sheltering Osama Bin Laden's Al-Qaeda organisation, accused of masterminding the attacks. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the region has seen a rise in the numbers of Islamic groups, their strength bolstered by a growing disenchantment with corruption, political oppression and poverty.
Oil rush
A number countries in Asia and the Central Caucasus have the potential to ride on the back of an oil boom. The resource-endowed states of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, with their large oil and gas reserves, could spur development throughout the region. The political and military involvement of the US in the region during and after the war in Afghanistan could stimulate more interest from US energy companies keen to profit from the region's abundant resources. The events of late 2001 have established a new relationship between Central Asia and the West. If the international price of oil remains high during 2002, this should result in increased energy production and larger revenues. Several oil pipelines are in the planning stages. A major project is the Trans-Caspian pipeline that will bring oil from Azerbaijan to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.
Leader of the pack
Economically, Kazakhstan is the most successful of the Central Asian States, with GDP growth of 13.2 per cent in 2001. Compared with other Central Asian States, the country's economy is more liberal.
Kazakhstan's political opposition has become more active, sparking hopes that there could be some departure from its authoritarian style of rule, a characteristic of the region, in the future.
Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are also economically sound, with respective GDP growth rates of 12 per cent and 9.9 per cent in 2001. Although Azerbaijan has a buoyant economy, around 60 per cent of the population still live below the poverty line. The main problem faced by this and many other Central Asian countries is diversifying their markets. It is hoped that increased interest from the US in the shape of more investment will help these countries meet their objectives. The US-led 'War on Terror' has already brought Krygyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan closer to the West and earned them greater financial aid than could have been expected from Russia, who in the past has tried to keep a tight grip on the Central Asian States and their resources.
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